Don't Be a Housing Market Bear. Here's Why......

The housing market in Vaughan, Mississauga, Toronto and the GTA has withstood the test of time and is not in danger of crashing like the US did back in 2008 despite higher mortgage rates and an economic slow down.

I can honestly say I don’t believe there will be anything close to a housing market melt down. I am in fact purchasing when I see opportunities and believe you should not let your fears be bigger than your dreams!

The Canadian housing market has been through its ups and downs in the past. Today we are seeing a market correction, but the overall market remains stable with excellent long-term potential thanks to several key factors. With these reassuring facts and when you are financially prepared, you can be confident you can embark on an exciting journey into homeownership.

Here’s why we can expect long-term housing market stability and strength:

A chronic lack of supply

Despite the increasing demand for housing in recent years, the actual supply of housing available has not kept pace. We’re even seeing housing projects being cancelled because of higher rates, higher cost of materials, and labour shortages.

CMHC last year forecasted that 3.5 million new housing units was necessary by 2030 to improve housing affordability, which is significantly more than the current rate at which housing units are being built. In fact, CMHC recently noted that housing starts fell when comparing 2022 with 2021.

Our chronic lack of supply is a primary reason our housing market isn’t heading towards a significant downturn and will cause housing to remain unaffordable for many Canadians.

Immigration

Canada welcomed a record number of immigrants in 2022. Over 430,000 new permanent residents arrived in Canada last year, up from more than 400,000 new arrivals in 2021. And the federal government has even more ambitious plans for immigration in the coming years, with 465,000 new permanent residents targeted for 2023, followed by 485,000 in 2024 and eventually 500,000 new arrivals each year starting in 2025. This is great news because immigration is so vital for our economy’s long-term success. We welcome all newcomers to Mississauga, Toronto and the GTA.

Toronto continues to be one of the most popular destinations for immigrants to Canada, with 115,775 new permanent residents making the GTA their home in 2022, according to Immigration and Citizenship Canada.

While most new immigrants arriving in the area typically do not have the resources to immediately buy a home, we do see that after about two- or three-years homeownership becomes a possibility. With increasing immigration targets, over the long term the result will be continued pressure on our housing supply.

Distressed selling will not have a big impact

Yes, there will be some distressed selling, but arrears are expected to remain low. Arrears for Canadian mortgages has been around a very low 0.14% and is projected to go no higher than 0.25%.

Economic downturns do put some homeowners in a tough situation that results in them selling their home when they must and not when they want. Some investors will not be able to carry all their properties and may look to sell for whatever price they can get.

History hasn’t shown a meaningful correlation between higher mortgage rates and defaults. In fact, job losses are much more highly correlated with mortgage defaults, and while our very tight employment market may lose some momentum this year, we’re a long way from the kind of unemployment spike that would trigger a surge in mortgage defaults.

Most of the impact of our rising rate environment is being felt by homeowners with variable rate mortgages, which is about 30% of borrowers. While they have been stress tested at a higher rate than their mortgage contract rate, there still will be some financial stress felt by higher payments. The good news is that our lenders are working diligently and proactively with these clients, offering solutions to help them manage their situation and keep their homes.

Fixed-rate borrowers, the largest group of homeowners, don’t feel the effects of higher rates until the end of their terms. When they reach that point, they will be renewing a lower mortgage balance than when they initially took out their mortgage. Regular mortgage payments pay both interest and principal, and many use their prepayment privileges to further pay down their mortgage, which builds an important safety buffer.

Government regulation

The Canadian mortgage market is much more conservatively regulated than the US market. Whether we like it or not, the government has played a key role in keeping the housing market stable by regulating mortgage financing. The mortgage qualifying stress test is one such example along with ensuring Canadians have 20% equity in their homes before being able to refinance.

It’s possible that new regulations coming this spring or summer will make it even tougher to qualify for a mortgage as the government worries that all the factors mentioned here will cause the housing market to take off, something they don’t want to see especially since the purpose of higher rates was to cool the market off.

The great wealth transfer

Over the next few years, it is estimated that about a $1 trillion intergenerational wealth transfer from the Baby Boomers to succeeding generations will continue to unfold. Some of this money will be used as downpayment funds particularly since many Boomers want their children and grandchildren to benefit from long-term property appreciation and they often want to participate in such a happy occasion.

According to a poll conducted by the Ontario Real Estate Association (OREA) in 2022,  about 40% of parents helped their children financially when they purchased a home, and that on average, the amount of money gifted to buy a home was $73,605.

Rates will eventually decline                        

The Bank of Canada recently announced another rate increase of .25%, taking the policy rate to 4.5%. The Bank is resolute in its fight against inflation and bringing it back to the target of 2%, currently at 6.3%. They are certainly making headway in this fight, with the Bank expecting inflation to move down to around 3% in the middle of this year and back to the 2% target in 2024. The Bank indicated it will now look to pause rate hikes while assessing the impact of their eight consecutive increases, which will likely include a recession, and recessionary times bring rates down. We don’t know when rates will start to decline, but we do know inflation is heading downward and there are signs of economic softening, eventually leading. to lower rates.

What’s the bottom line?       

There is no question the current economic climate has put a strain on our wallets and caused prospective homebuyers to be anxious about their financial security and hesitant about entering the housing market. However, there are multiple factors working together to keep Canada’s housing market stable. While prices may soften further, the combination of tight inventories, high immigration, low projected arrears, prudent regulation, and eventual lower rates are creating an environment of long-term prosperity for those entering the housing market.

Don’t be a housing bear! Look beyond the current correction and consider why it might be important to take advantage of today’s lower home prices. History has shown us that it pays to be ahead of the curve! We all want to buy low and sell high but because emotion plays such a big role in our decision making, we often miss out and have significant regrets after the fact.

The upcoming spring market could be an important moment of opportunity for purchasing real estate and benefiting from long-term home price appreciation in Mississauga, Toronto and the GTA. Don’t miss out if you are financially ready. If you are not prepared or don’t know how to be, I can guide you on the best strategies to become financially fit for homeownership.

Let me help you achieve your homeownership dreams. I have the expertise and experience to help you navigate today’s complex and confusing marketplace. Let’s talk!

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Buying a home is a significant milestone in life, and finding the right mortgage is crucial to this journey. Many of us turn to online resources for information, including when it comes to mortgage shopping. Unfortunately, the lowest advertised rates are often used as a lure and are unattainable for most customers because they don’t qualify or it’s unsuitable for their needs. This can be very frustrating for prospective homebuyers and homeowners in Mississauga and the Greater Toronto Area.

To shed some light on why you may not qualify for that low advertised rate, and why rates can differ significantly, let’s explore the various factors that influence mortgage rates.

Does the Mortgage Require Default Mortgage Insurance? Whether your mortgage requires default mortgage insurance affects the rate you’ll be offered. There are three categories of mortgages related to this insurance:

Insured Mortgages: These mortgages benefit both borrowers and lenders. Borrowers with a down payment below 20% must obtain mortgage default insurance, which protects lenders in case of borrower default. The insurance cost is usually added to the mortgage, increasing the mortgage amount and payment. Insured mortgages provide access to lower down payment requirements and often the lowest rates, making homeownership more attainable.

Insured mortgages have a maximum property value of $1 million and require owner occupancy. They are only available for purchases and renewals, not refinances. The longest available amortization period is 25 years.

In Canada, mortgage default insurers include the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC), Sagen (formerly Genworth), and Canada Guaranty. To be eligible for mortgage default insurance, borrowers must meet specific criteria, including a solid credit score, adequate income, and property guidelines set by both the lender and insurer. Additionally, borrowers must pass the stress test, demonstrating their ability to manage higher interest rates or payments.

Insurable Mortgages: Insurable mortgages are eligible for mortgage default insurance, but it is not a government requirement. Lenders opt for insurance to reduce risk or securitize their mortgages. Since the lender pays the insurance premium, rates are slightly higher compared to insured mortgages.

Insurable mortgages are available only for owner-occupied home purchases (or renewals) with a down payment of 20% or more and for a property value of up to $1,000,000. The maximum amortization period is 25 years. The stress test is required, and insurable mortgages are not available for refinances.

Conventional/Uninsured Mortgages: Conventional mortgages are for borrowers with a down payment of 20% or more. These mortgages don’t require mortgage insurance, offering borrowers more flexibility. They can accommodate purchase prices exceeding $1 million, have extended amortization beyond 25 years, permit refinancing, and support single-unit rental properties. There is also more leniency towards credit scores and debt levels. Additionally, the mortgage stress test doesn’t apply when the financial institution is not federally regulated, such as credit unions. However, since lenders assume all the risk, rates are higher compared to insured and insurable mortgages.

Fixed vs. Variable Rate: The rate you’ll get depends on whether you choose a fixed or variable rate. Fixed rates remain constant throughout the mortgage term, providing predictability and consistent monthly payments. On the other hand, variable rates are tied to a benchmark rate and can fluctuate as market conditions change. While fixed rates offer stability, variable rates sometimes have lower interest rates but come with the risk of potential increases.

Is it a No-Frills Mortgage? No-frills mortgages are frequently advertised online with enticingly low rates. Usually, these are insured mortgages, but the low rate often comes with restrictions and fees that can be costly in the long run. It’s essential to do your online rate research but seek advice to understand any potential fees and limitations that may arise in the future.

Extended Amortization: Conventional mortgage holders have the option to extend their amortization period beyond 25 years, which offers cash flow flexibility through lower payments. However, this extension might come with a rate premium.

Investment Property Mortgages: Lenders often consider investment properties riskier, resulting in slightly higher interest rates compared to primary residences. Working with a Mortgage Broker can help navigate the complexities of investment property mortgages and find competitive rates.

B Mortgages: B mortgages, also known as alternative or non-prime mortgages, cater to borrowers who do not meet the strict criteria set by conventional lenders. These mortgages are tailored to individuals with lower credit scores or unique financial situations, resulting in higher interest rates compared to other mortgage types.

Private Mortgages: Private mortgages involve borrowing from private individuals or companies instead of traditional lenders. Borrowers often turn to these loans when they cannot secure financing through conventional means. While private mortgages may carry higher interest rates, they can provide a quick short-term alternative.

Leveraging a Mortgage Broker’s Expertise

Navigating the complex landscape of mortgage rates and options can be confusing and frustrating. This is where an experienced Mortgage Broker can make a world of difference. A skilled and trusted Mortgage Broker. Here’s how:

Enhancing Credit: To secure the best mortgage rate, it’s important to have a strong credit profile. A Mortgage Broker can assist you in repairing and enhancing your credit score before a mortgage application. 

Debt Restructuring: Managing debt effectively is crucial for obtaining the best mortgage rates. A Mortgage Broker can advise you on reorganizing your debt to improve your overall debt-to-income ratio. Through optimal debt management, you can position yourself favorably for more competitive mortgage rates.

Options to Improve Qualifying: There are options available to help you improve your ability to qualify for a mortgage and get the best rates. For example, a gifted downpayment involves having a family member provide some or all the down payment as a gift. You could also access funds from your RRSP through the Federal Home Buyer’s Plan. These options can increase your downpayment, which can make a real difference in your ability to purchase your desired home and access the best rates.

If you still need help qualifying, getting a cosigner on your mortgage can boost the strength of your application because your cosigner’s financial profile is added to your application to strengthen it. A Mortgage Broker can provide invaluable advice on down-payment and qualifying strategies.

 Market Analysis and Rate Comparisons: Mortgage Brokers conduct thorough market analysis and rate comparisons on behalf of clients, identifying optimal mortgage rates and terms. 

Positioning for the Best Rate

Now that we have reviewed the intricate landscape of mortgage rates, one thing remains abundantly clear: securing the optimal mortgage deal demands more than a cursory glance at online rates.

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Are you considering buying a home in Mississauga, Toronto, or the Greater Toronto Area (GTA)? As the fall season approaches, you may be wondering if it’s the right time to make such a significant investment. Purchasing a home is a big decision, and timing can play a crucial role in ensuring you get the best deal. Let’s explore whether this fall is the right time to buy a home, discuss the steps to take to improve your chances of mortgage qualifying, and the options we have that can help.

This Fall – A Favorable Time for Homebuyers

In the Spring, when the Bank of Canada paused its interest rate hikes, the housing market accelerated and recovered a good portion of the losses sustained in 2022. Now with two subsequent rate hikes in June and July and increased fixed rates, some homebuyers have become nervous, not to mention priced out of the market with an increasingly tougher qualifying stress test. There will be fewer buyers actively searching for properties, which means less competition, giving you improved negotiating power and potentially better prices.

Additionally, sellers who have listed their homes during the summer months and have not yet sold could be more motivated to close the deal before the end of the year. This increased motivation can work in your favour, as sellers may be more willing to negotiate on price or other terms.

Surging Immigration and Lack of Housing Starts

If you needed any further motivation to buy a home this fall, consider the current state of housing in Canada. There is a persistent shortage of housing due to the failure of new home development to keep up with demand. In 2022, the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) noted that Canada needed to construct 3.5 million more homes by 2030 to achieve home affordability for Canadians. This is in addition to the nineteen million housing units that were already expected to be completed by 2030. However, according to CMHC data, housing starts are on a noticeable decline, and we may not even reach the original nineteen million new housing units by 2030.

Adding to the housing shortage, Canada’s immigration targets have increased, further straining the market. In 2023, Canada is targeting 465,000 new permanent residents, followed by 485,000 in 2024, and eventually aiming for 500,000 new arrivals each year starting in 2025. This influx of new residents adds to the already high demand for housing.
Statistics Canada reported that the Canadian population reached more than forty million as of June 16, 2023. This milestone came faster than expected, with 1.050 million people arriving in 2022, the first time our population grew by over one million people in a single year, with most being permanent and temporary immigrants.

While our population is now growing at a record-setting pace, our housing infrastructure is struggling to keep up. The resulting scarcity from our chronic lack of supply leads to a very competitive real estate market and sometimes bidding wars, creating frustration, and making it exceedingly difficult for first-time buyers to find affordable options.

Inflation is Tumbling

On July 18, annual inflation tumbled to 2.8%! We are finally getting closer to the Bank of Canada’s target of 2%. When the Bank feels it has achieved success in achieving this goal, rates will start to come down.

But don’t wait for rates to start falling. Once rates do start to come down, this could fuel the market, given pent-up demand, improved affordability, surging immigration, and a severe undersupply of housing supply.

Buyers are already aware of the market dynamics and are out house shopping. Phil Soper, CEO of Royal LePage, in this recent Financial Post article, noted that there are buyers who have accepted the reality of higher initial mortgage payments, believing that rates are either at or close to their peak and that carrying a mortgage will become more affordable before long.

Qualifying for a Mortgage: Key Steps to Take

Now that we’ve discussed the potential benefits of buying a home in the fall, let’s dive into how you can qualify for a mortgage and make the process smoother.

1. Check your credit score and polish your credit: Lenders use your credit score to determine your creditworthiness. Your score can affect your ability to get approved for a mortgage and the interest rate you receive. A higher credit score generally translates to lower interest rates and better terms, which can save you thousands of dollars over the life of your mortgage. You can ensure your credit score is in good shape by paying your bills on time, keeping your credit card balances low (below 35% of your limit), and correcting any errors that you may find on your credit report.

2. Pay off debt. Paying off debt before getting a mortgage is recommended because it can improve your debt-to-income ratio, free up cash flow, lower monthly payments, reduce financial stress, and improve your credit score. This can make it easier to qualify for a mortgage with favorable terms and put you in a stronger financial position overall.

3. Get pre-approved: A preapproval is important because it helps you determine your home much house you can afford, shows sellers that you are a serious buyer, gives you a rate hold for up to 120 days, and streamlines the mortgage application process. A pre-approval can save you time, prevent you from overreaching, and increase your chances of having your offer accepted.

4. Increase your downpayment: A larger down payment can lower your monthly mortgage payments, improve your ability to qualify with your lender, reduce the amount of interest you pay over the life of your mortgage, and potentially eliminate the need for mortgage default insurance if you have a 20% or larger downpayment. A common strategy for many new homebuyers is to get a gifted downpayment from parents or grandparents. You can also withdraw up to $35,000 from your RRSP under the first-time buyers’ plan.

5. Get a co-signor. A cosigner for your mortgage application can be beneficial if you have a low credit score, little credit history, or a high debt-to-income ratio. A cosigner with good credit and income can help strengthen your application by adding their financial resources to yours, which can increase the likelihood of approval and improve the terms of your mortgage.

6. Get advice early! It’s a good idea to have help, to understand your options and identify potential roadblocks before you start the application process. He can review your financial situation, credit history, and other factors that could impact your ability to get approved for a mortgage. By seeking advice early, you can avoid surprises and make informed decisions that can save you time, money, and stress in the long run.

Our Mortgage Solutions to Help with Qualifying

We have mortgage options that are specifically designed to help you qualify at today’s rates and help you manage your monthly budget.

Extend Your Amortization
The benefit of extending your amortization is lower monthly payments, which can make a dramatic difference if your budget is tight. You can always shorten your amortization once rates begin to drop, and you have more breathing room.

To get a 30-year amortization mortgage, you need a 20% downpayment, which is another reason to try and achieve a larger amount down. Some non-prime lenders offer 40-year amortizations, but they do come with a rate premium.

6-Month Mortgage
This mortgage may sound odd; why take a new mortgage for only 6 months? The benefit of this product is that the rate is significantly lower and is essentially a promotional rate to help you qualify and pass the stress test. Then at 6 months, you renew into the product that looks to be the best at that time.

Non-Stress Tested Mortgages
Most non-prime lenders and credit unions are not required to use the stress test for mortgage qualifying because they aren’t federally regulated. These lenders will qualify you at your contract rate, and not your contract rate plus 2%. This can help you qualify for the amount you want or allow you to purchase more house.

Final Thoughts
While this fall looks to be an opportune time to buy a home in Mississauga, Toronto, and the GTA, it’s essential to consider whether you are financially ready or not. Remember that the right time to buy a home is determined by your financial readiness, market conditions, and personal goals.

If you’re well-prepared and have done your due diligence, this Fall can offer unique advantages for homebuyers like reduced competition and motivated sellers.

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Welcome to our comprehensive guide on incentives for first-time homebuyers in Mississauga, Toronto, and GTA. Buying your first home is an exciting milestone, but the financial aspects can often seem challenging, that’s why it’s a good idea to be aware of the financial incentives that can help. These incentives can make a significant difference in achieving homeownership, both before and after your purchase. Here’s an overview of the key programs –

  1. First Home Savings Account (FHSA)

The FHSA is an excellent way for aspiring homeowners to save and achieve their dream of owning a home. First-time qualified homebuyers can contribute $8,000 annually and up to $40,000 in total for an individual or $80,000 for couples. Contributions are tax-deductible like an RRSP, while withdrawals, including investment growth, are non-taxable like a TFSA. You can carry forward $8,000 in unused contributions to the next year.

Parents who are gifting funds to their children for a home purchase should consider contributing to an FHSA on their behalf. This gives their children the bonus of a tax refund for those contributions.

Unlike the RRSP Home Buyer’s Plan (HBP), the FHSA has no repayment obligation.

The program allows for transfers from your RRSP to your FHSA. This strategy gives you a tax-free RRSP withdrawal, although you don’t get a tax deduction for the transfer, and this does not affect your RRSP contribution room.

Should you not buy a house, you have the option to withdraw your balance as taxable funds or move it to your RRSP tax-free and unlock additional contribution room.

More information including how to strategically use the FHSA can be found here.

  1. RRSP Home Buyer’s Plan (HBP)

An effective strategy to help you realize your homeownership dreams is to utilize your RRSPs for a downpayment boost. First-time buyers can receive a tax-free withdrawal of up to $35,000 from their RRSP ($70,000 per couple). This amount can serve as a significant portion of the down payment and help you reach the 20 percent down threshold required to avoid mortgage default insurance premiums.

To further bolster your downpayment, if you have the contribution room, consider contributing up to $35,000 to your RRSP account at least 90 days before closing. You could put your existing downpayment funds to work for this short period. With this contribution, a sizeable tax refund can be triggered which can help cover many of the costs associated with your purchase. The withdrawn funds will need to be kept in the account for a minimum of 90 days before they can be withdrawn. To not be required to pay taxes, you’ll need to repay the RRSP withdrawal within 15 years according to the repayment plan. Or, 1/15th of the amount withdrawn will be added to your taxable income each year.

Note: Both the FHSA and the HBP can be used for the same home purchase. This means that up to $150,000 could be available to help a couple with their downpayment.

  1. First-Time Home Buyer Tax Credit

New homebuyers can receive up to $1,500 in federal tax relief through the $10,000 first-time home buyer tax credit. This tax credit can be claimed on your personal tax return for the year of purchase and can assist with many of your first home expenses.

  1. Land Transfer Tax Rebate

In Ontario, homebuyers are subject to land transfer tax upon purchasing a property, which is calculated as a percentage of the property price. First-time homebuyers in Brampton, Toronto, and GTA are often surprised by the substantial land transfer tax they must pay. However, you may qualify for a partial or full rebate of up to $4,000. Purchasing a home in Toronto could entitle you to an extra rebate of up to $4,475.

  1. HST New Housing Rebate

When buying a new construction home or making significant renovations to an existing one, you may be eligible to recover some of the HST that you paid if certain criteria are met. The Ontario government will provide a 75% refund of their portion of the HST on the first $400,000 of your home’s value, which is $24,000.

You must apply within two years of the closing date and utilize the home as either yours or an immediate family member’s primary residence. Ensure that only immediate family members are on the title, or you won’t qualify. If you think you may qualify, check out the CRA’s GST/HST New Housing Rebate guide.

  1. CMHC Eco Plus or Sagen Energy-Efficient Housing Program

If you purchase an energy-efficient home with a CMHC or Sagen-insured mortgage, you may qualify for up to a 25 percent refund of the mortgage insurance premium you paid, which can be quite significant savings. This refund also applies to those who choose to buy a home and make it more energy efficient. Canada Guaranty has a similar program called Energy-Efficient Advantage Program.

  1. Enbridge Home Energy Rebate

Ontario homeowners who want to make their home energy efficient can get up to $10,000 in rebates for eligible retrofits such as home insulation, windows, doors, and renewable energy systems. This applies to all homeowners and not just first-time buyers.

Enbridge Gas along with Natural Resources Canada (NRCan) have joined together and made it easier to apply for the Canada Greener Homes Grant. Ontarians who are not Enbridge customers continue to be eligible to receive up to $5000 in Canada Greener Homes Grant. More details are available from Enbridge.

A Note on the First-Time Homebuyer Incentive

This program is a shared equity program with the federal government that was designed to help first-time buyers get into the market by providing 5 percent of the cost of an existing home, or 10 percent of the purchase price of a new home. This has not been a popular program because homebuyers do not want to share their equity gains with the government, especially if they invest in renovations. Homebuyers look at homeownership as a strong long-term investment and sharing equity gains goes against that objective.

The government has extended this program to March 31, 2025, and is considering ways to make it make more acceptable to first-time homebuyers because usage of the program has been exceptionally low.

Contact Joe Purewal, Mortgage Broker

Navigating the world of incentives and understanding which ones you qualify for can be complex. As a Mortgage Broker with extensive experience in the Mississauga, Toronto, and GTA markets, Joe can guide you through the process and help you take advantage of the incentives available to you.

Contact us today to schedule a consultation. Together, we’ll explore your eligibility for incentives, discuss your financial goals, and develop a personalized strategy to help you achieve homeownership. Don’t let the challenges of buying your first home hold you back. Let’s work together to unlock opportunities and make your dream of owning a home a reality.

Now that you’ve checked out financial incentives, consider some common mistakes to avoid as a first-time homebuyer.

Looking at homes before getting preapproved: Getting pre-approved helps you understand how much you can afford to spend on a home. Without knowing your budget range, you may look at homes that are outside your financial reach, leading to disappointment. Or you may even qualify for more than you think.

Sellers often prefer working with buyers who have been pre-approved for a mortgage. It shows that you are a serious buyer who has taken the necessary steps to secure financing. Having a pre-approved mortgage can give you an advantage during negotiations and increase your chances of having your offer accepted.

Overall, a pre-approval helps you set realistic expectations, strengthens your position as a buyer, and increases your confidence when making an offer on a property.

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